Springer Run Beats Preseason Forecast

There’s a reason I never became an accountant, but by my fuzzy voodoo math, it appears that this year’s upriver-bound Columbia spring Chinook run came in at around 111 percent of the preseason forecast.

Through June 15, the last day that springers are counted as springers by WDFW and ODFW, a total of 205,431 had crossed Bonneville Dam.

That’s also slightly above the 10-year average of 203,294.1.

Managers had expected 198,400.

When you add in estimates for how many upriver kings were caught below the dam by nontribal sport anglers (8,700), nontribal commercial anglers (3,739) and tribal hook-and-line fishermen (2,300), it raises the total run to at least 220,170.

Figure that the bright folks in Vancouver, Clackamas and Portland will have final numbers — including how many were intercepted by seals and sea lions, etc., etc. — and the number may grow beyond that.

Despite its slow start, likely delayed by high, cold water, 2011’s run will finish out among the top six on record, and maybe even bump up to the fifth best.

Of note, the jack return through yesterday was also the second highest on record, 67,038, which may be good news for the 2012 return. The all-time best return of the so-called precocious three-year-old salmon was 2009’s 81,782; last year saw a return of over 320,000 adults.

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