5th Largest Fall King Run in 60 Years Forecast To Columbia

This just in from Vancouver/Portland: Expect a nice little bump up in fall Chinook returns to the Columbia.

Managers are forecasting a return of 760,000, up from last year’s forecast and return of around 650,000.

It would be the fifth largest since 1948 if it comes to pass, they say.

And the upriver bright component — just under 400,000 — would be the second largest run since record keeping began in 1964.

JAMIE HAWKINS AND MANY OTHER COLUMBIA RIVER FALL CHINOOK ANGLERS ARE IN FOR WHAT MAY BE THE FIFTH BEST RUN SINCE 1948. SHE CAUGHT THIS NICE UPRIVER BRIGHT, ESTIMATED AT 40 POUNDS, NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE COWLITZ LAST FALL. HER BOYFRIEND, BEAU, FOLLOWED IT UP A BIT LATER WITH A 25. (WRIGHT & MCGILL/EAGLE CLAW PHOTO CONTEST)

Last fall, 325,000 URBs came back to the Hanford Reach, Snake River and other upper system tribs.

Here’s more from today’s announcement:

COLUMBIA RIVER FALL CHINOOK

2011 PRESEASON FORECASTS

    Stock Group 2011 February Forecasts 2010 Actual Returns 2010 February Forecasts
    Lower River Hatchery – LRH 133,500 103,000 90,600
    Lower River Wild – LRW 12,500 10,900 9,700
    Bonneville Pool Hatchery – BPH 116,400 130,800 169,000
    Upriver Bright – URB 398,200 324,900 310,800
    Bonneville Upriver Bright – BUB 37,600 29,400 30,300
    Pool Upriver Bright – PUB 62,400 49,600 42,300
    Columbia River Total 760,600 648,600 652,700
    2011 Forecasts
  • LRH – Best return since 2003 and greater than the 10-year average (92,500).
  • LRW – Improved over last four years, but slightly below 10-year average (15,400).
  • BPH – Slightly less than 2010 actual return but greater than the 10-year average (105,900).
  • URB – 2nd largest return since record keeping began in 1964 (The largest return was 420,700 in 1987).  Over 60% of the 2011 return is expected to be age-4 fish.
  • BUB – Similar to the 10-year average of 47,500.
  • PUB – 3rd largest return on record (1986).  Greater than 10-year average (43,800).
  • Total forecast of 760,600 Columbia River fall Chinook is the 5th largest since at least 1948 and greater than the 10-year average of 565,800.
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