New Springer Run Guess: 310K-370K

Even though the count at Bonneville is the highest it’s been since 2002 and third highest since 1977, it looks like the upriver spring Chinook forecast may come in lower than anticipated.

“It is still too early for TAC to provide a reliable point estimate but TAC provided a range of 310,000-370,000 based on passage to date,” a fact sheet from Washington and Oregon fishery managers out this morning says. “TAC also estimates that the run timing for 2010 is somewhat earlier than the very late runs seen in the last five years, and anticipates that the 50% passage date will likely occur sometime this week.”

A total of 158,562 have gone over the dam through May 3, nearly 50,000 more than the 10-year average. Another 35,275 that would have have been killed in sport and commercial fisheries (below Bonneville: sports: 23,533; nets: 8,787; another 2,955 middle and upper Columbia and Snake river non-treaty fisheries).

This year’s prediction called for 470,000 above-Bonneville springers. However, that number is actually an average of seven different forecast models that rang up a runsize of anywhere from 366,000 to 528,000.

There’s no word about any general Lower Columbia fishing reopener in the fact sheet — managers are still waiting to do that early-May run update — but commercial fisheries at four SAFE areas down by Astoria was approved late this morning.

“Volunteer test fishing conducted in Youngs Bay upstream of the Old Youngs Bay Bridge on Sunday, May 2 showed a high abundance of locally-produced spring Chinook (110 fish observed) with zero upriver fish,” the fact sheet states.

They were closed a couple weeks ago because of large catches of upriver-bound Chinook there.

The fact sheet says that, depending on how those go, sport fishing may be reopened at Deep River, Knappa Slough, Tongue Point and Youngs Bay.

There’s room in the preseason guideline for about 3,000 more of those springers to be caught by sports and netters below Bonneville.


One Response to “New Springer Run Guess: 310K-370K”

  1. Springers 2010, By The Numbers « Northwest Sportsman Says:

    […] First inseason forecast update (May 4): 310,000 to 370,000 […]

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