It’s back up — the Columbia upriver-bound spring Chinook forecast.
As the run has surged and ebbed this spring with the surge and ebb of the mighty river’s flows, managers have also been yo-yoing with their expectation of how many of the salmon will return to the mouth of the Columbia, upsizing it, boosting it again but disagreeing on how high it might go, lowering it, dropping some more and now reversing course.
MOLLY FRANCIS SHOWS OFF A SWEET CHINOOK CAUGHT OFF THE BEACH THIS WEEK. (WRIGHT & McGILL/EAGLE CLAW PHOTO CONTEST)
Here’s how the forecast has changed this season:
Preseason forecast: 198,400
With the run late or small and river flows high and cold, it wasn’t until early May that managers could update the return. What they saw during the first 10 days of May was the highest springer count for that period in the 2000s — 90,842, 72 percent of the run through the 10th — and one of the six best days of all time.
First inseason update: 210,000
From there the adult run began to tail off and the jack count pick up. Even so, on May 16 managers issued another update.
Second inseason update: 217,000 to 237,000
Through May 24, with the overall Bonneville count at 160,000 plus 10,000 or so caught below the dam, but daily counts down to the 600s (a function probably of high flows), managers ratcheted their predictions backwards a hair.
Third inseason update: 213,400
Through the end of May the dam count was 167,000 and with only 15 days officially left in the springer run, on June 1 the return was dropped by nearly 10,000.
Fourth inseason update: 204,000
But in the week afterwards and on the backs of a series of 2,500-fish days, today they added 10K back the bank account.
Fifth inseason update: 214,000
By the way, the jack count at Bonnie is just under 60,000, second only to the 82,000 that went over in 2009 and may have been one of the factors that lead to 2010′s big run, the third best on record.
As it stands, the increased adult run size above 198,400 — as well as high flows that have limited the catch for boaters though bankies have done well — allowed extended fishing periods on the spring stock below and above Bonneville, including a season right up to the otherwise scheduled June 16 summer king opener. It appears that nontribal and tribal anglers will come in below quotas.
Here are projected catches for all fleets:
|
Preliminary summary of 2011 Non-Indian upriver Chinook Catch |
|
| Fishery | Mortalities |
| Mainstem commercial | 3,467 |
| Select Area comm. (proj. to June 15) | 272 |
| Lower Col. R. Sport (proj. to June 15) | 8,700 |
| Z6 Sport (proj. to June 15) | 2,657 |
| Snake River/Ringold sport | 1,964 |
| Actual and Projected season total | 17,060 |
| Allowed based on current run size | 19,474 |
The mainstem commercial fisheries occurred below the mouth of the Willamette.
The select area commercial fisheries occurred in off-channel bays near Astoria.
The Lower Columbia sport fishery is ongoing below Bonneville Dam.
The Z6, or Zone 6, sport fishery is from Bonneville east to the state line just upstream of McNary Dam.
The Snake River/Ringold includes parts of Washington’s lower Snake and the Ringold hatchery area north of Tri-Cities.
| 2011 Treaty Indian Spring Chinook Fisheries | |
| Ceremonial Permits | 8,947 |
| Zone 6 Platform/H&L | 6,100 |
| Downstream of Bonneville Dam Hook and Line | 2,300 |
| Actual catch through June 4 | 17,347 |
| Projected catch (June 5-15) from ongoing fisheries | 1,200 |
| Actual and Projected season total | 18,547 |
| Allowed based on current run size | 19,474 |
| Balance | 927 |
